Judgment five months after the heavy truck market trends

The first half of this year, subject to the influence of the national macro-economic control, the heavy truck market showing a dismal first two months after the April feature higher. Although the heavy truck market models showing the consumer he rose the tug of war, but overall growth is to restore land. The judgment can be seen, the heavy-duty truck industry, and the market is still in a the haze affected by the financial crisis and downturn, the narrowing of the decline in fundamentals, the situation is still very grim.

With the release of the National 4 trillion investment recession weakened, the market demand of the construction vehicles will be flat to down. At the same time, the increase in demand for logistics and transport around the production and household items, bulk materials, highway freight volume will rebound in the second half of the logistics market has begun to recover, causing the tractor market demand has resumed its growth, market share will rise further shift in performance in engineering vehicles and logistics car, which inevitably led directly to the market structure will undergo major changes. The following to be judged in several ways:

1 GDP growth of 7.1% in the first half of the year, the national fixed-asset investment up 33.5%. Engineering vehicle market demand in the first half of the year focused on the release, five months after the market demand is relatively fragmented, if not the major event, the second-class chassis on the market in general will not drop much.

2, five months after the heavy truck market with the goods stable growth, the start of the logistics market, is bound to promote the sale of the tractor. Coupled with the cancellation and implementation of fuel tax road maintenance, road transport vehicles is bound to be the focus of the second half of the year. Tractor market by fuel tax impact of the birth of highway logistics enterprise models replacement market new demand. These factors will drive the tractor five months after the market's growth. Increasing cost pressures faced by the domestic freight market, freight rates in the second half of the year or the rebound.

Fuel costs as one of the three major cost of logistics enterprises, prices continued to rise in profit is inherently weak logistics enterprises affect the extent of even worse. This year's high oil prices on the rise in the cost of logistics industry, the next time will finally transmitted to the market consumer segments. Transportation costs increase and improve the cost will naturally be passed on to the customer on the logistics industry as a modern economic blood pass out once the cost of rising oil prices, will tear down a domino, agricultural products, industrial products had to price increases to digestion of rising oil prices.

Many logistics enterprises operating costs rose by 5% to 6% in the first half of the year due to the price of oil shot up to considerable cost pressures, the continued rise in oil prices has brought to logistics companies, logistics companies nerves near collapse. In the case of the current global financial crisis continued to spread, the logistics industry as a barometer of economic operation has not completely recovered, still not completely get rid of the shadow of the economic crisis.

Background of rising oil prices significantly increase the operating costs of the logistics industry is economic recovery, prominent crisis clues are obvious. Which exports $ 521.53 billion, down 21.8%; imports 424.59 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decline of 25.4%. The cumulative trade surplus of $ 96.94 billion, a decrease of 1.3%, a net decrease of $ 1.3 billion. The negative growth in import and export trade, the trade surplus rose, the recession of the international market situation as a whole still does not improve, the negative impact of China's GDP has increased.

The negative growth of import and export will directly affect the tractor market demand this year is expected to five months after the tractor market demand has gone up compared to the previous seven months, but overall will be in the low levels. At the same time, due to the negative impact of the global economic crisis, the export of heavy-duty trucks fell sharply foregone conclusion, finding a mate decline. The pros and cons of the common rail and EGR technology has now gradually emerging, to the advantage of the State IV pressure common rail engine is low fuel consumption, low failure rate, high reliability. The so-called the EGR country IV technology with high fuel consumption, unstable performance, high failure rate. So, in road cars such as the tractor started to accept the common rail engine, engineering vehicles such as dump trucks and other to choose cheaper EGR engine. Share of the State IV era of high-pressure common rail engine is expected to further increase.

Recently, Shaanxi Auto parts installed Cummins Engine IV emission standards series heavy truck volume market. At the same time, many domestic heavy truck companies are actively developing the State IV truck. State IV emission standards is the National Stage IV motor vehicle emissions standards to control and reduce automotive emissions of pollutants to the required values ​​below standard. Before the national IV standard diesel emissions by cleaning Technologies to solve pollutant emission control, and the corresponding standard from State IV, in addition to improved fuel injection system, to optimize the combustion process and machine purification measures, must also increase the device to make emissions compliance.

Shaanxi Auto State IV of heavy trucks using SCR technology routes. Commonly used in European long-distance truck SCR technology, while the short-distance transport or city buses EGR + DPF technology. The route mainly Cummins, Mark, Detroit diesel engine, Daimler - Chrysler, VOLVO, DAF, IVECO; major North American mainstream EGR + DPF. The technical route Cummins, Caterpillar, IWC, SCANIA, MAN.

Information: the main SCR technology mainstream in Europe, while in North America EGR + DPF mainstream, this is mainly because the first U.S. fuel prices are lower than in Europe, and owners are not sensitive to fuel economy, but need to consider applying urea with to the cost. 150,000 km no maintenance requirements US2007 standard on new cars, you need about 5000 kilometers SCR technology necessary to add urea. The third SCR technology also need to apply for special permission to the U.S. EPA.

For the domestic end this kind of program, is still difficult to determine. The two techniques have their advantages and disadvantages of SCR program, the engine does not have to do further intensive treatment. Smaller impact of the sulfur content in the fuel system can avoid the problem of high sulfur fuel, but the urea solution additional equipment to be set up at the gas station, also need to add a set of vehicle urea storage and conversion devices that cost increase. Using EGR + DPF / DOC program needs to be strengthened on the original engine, to improve injection pressure and a turbocharged and intercooled capacity and higher fuel consumption, but does not add additional devices to the user as long as the regular replacement of the particulate trap, is conducive to the vehicle lightweight.

Right now, the international financial crisis continues to spread, the impact on China's economy is still deepening; China's economic recovery are not yet solid, the internal and external environment is still very grim; 2009 heavy truck manufacturers and the overall market situation is still grim, is still not optimistic.