Decade of sword. "Polished" effect of China's new energy automotive industry is not optimistic. The development of new energy vehicles in China at the cradle of the "Eighth Five-Year Plan, the excitement in the" Eleventh Five-Year "plan" Ten City 1000 "new energy vehicle demonstration and Operations Engineering. However, nearly ten billion capital investment in exchange for a satisfactory answer can not people have digital plans have fallen. 2009 "Ten City, 1000" when the project began, many cities are lofty, have developed four years, new energy vehicles, an increase of 1-3 million units, ranging goals ambitious. "In fact, the 25 Demonstration operators cities each year to promote new energy vehicles sum have stayed about ten thousand, the overall result is frustrating." New energy development and application of the industrialization of the Committee of Experts, deputy director Xie Zaicong very anxious. With the ending of the 2012 Ten City 1000 "project, forthcoming from the ideas and policies for the development of a new energy vehicles, or will be announced in 2013 after the" two sessions ". In before the new move of the government, industry and academia have begun to reflect on. The development of new energy vehicles "should be the end of the previous hot-tempered, return of calm thinking stage." Said Xie Zaicong.
Recently, global new energy vehicles held in Boao Forum uploaded a series of pragmatic signal, entrepreneurs and academics big change from the previous warmly introduced the development of the large ones, have raised the issues facing the industry, began to cool thinking. The President of the General Assembly, the first electric Mobility CEO Pang Yicheng Hainan Declaration, in which the focus is put electric vehicles from technology push to market to consumers on the first place. On this basis, Xie Zicong said, we do not have too much what kind of business model tangle whether to take to the city as a unit to promote the business model, and allow the market to give the answer.
China's new energy vehicles, where short-term breakthrough point, this is a question worth pondering. Sun Shu, principal analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance Energy Smart technology, said the reporter, "electric cars as a utility vehicle will be a breakthrough point." Ten City 1000 "the ending unsatisfactory pilot cities prefer not finish the pilot target, also not willing to take the local financial subsidies "outsiders" Currently, four ministries, including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as well as development and Reform Commission was mid to late 12 make up the acceptance group went to pilot cities to conduct field assessment, not issued official findings. The official Xinhua News Agency learned from the Ministry of Science and Technology of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other 25 pilot cities of various types of energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and extension 27400. Which 23,000 public service areas (including buses, taxis, and some government vehicles), the private sector is 04,400. Financial subsidies will be completed by the end of March 2013 liquidation, demonstration and extension will reach 39,700. "This is far lower than many other cities in the beginning of the establishment of the target." Xiezi Cong.
To the actual operation of new energy bus, for example, released on January 11, 2013, the first electric Mobility 2012 new energy buses consumer report "show, in late 2012 demonstration operations planning new energy passenger cars reached 24,220 units, while the actual operation of new The energy bus up to 11,777, and only completed 48% of the target. Promotion of new energy buses only two cities of Shenzhen (2024) and Beijing (1120), the number of one thousand or more. For this result, Xie Zaicong "completely is inevitable. Countries do not have to complete the top-level design to the development of new energy vehicles, still in accordance with the pattern of the reform and opening up, but at this time there is no standard, cast more money effects are not so good. "Said Xie Zicong. In addition, many cities do not want to give the "benefit" car prices in other cities, the formation of local protectionism. In other words, in some places the automobile industry was not fully developed, local products available for procurement of new energy vehicles, taking into account local interests, the pilot cities would rather not finish the pilot objectives, unwilling to take the local financial subsidies "outsiders". In fact, a city to rely solely on the support of the local car prices, and battery manufacturers, "Ten City 1000" from the market-driven role is not large. Commercial vehicles or breaking point "in 2015, under strong government to promote 500,000 may be."
2009-2012 "10 City 1000 vehicles during the construction, entrepreneurs and experts have put forward the concept of" corner overtaking "new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles in China and developed countries in its infancy, if the country is able to good grasp this opportunity in the future will have the opportunity to get rid of the current situation of the automotive industry behind. "Corner overtaking" the concept of time has wither, new energy vehicles in China in addition to relying on the government will pay for the external bus, taxis and government vehicles with some success, however, has not been able to open new energy vehicles, the real market - private The passenger car market. "New energy vehicles as a commodity, the price is high, performance imperfect, incomplete infrastructure and a series of reasons, resulting in the private market, it is difficult to accept the new energy vehicles." Said Sun Shu, the private market within the next five years are difficult to be turned on. However, the countries' energy-saving and new energy vehicle development plan (2012-2020) ", to 2015, China's new energy automotive industry development goal is to fight for pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles accumulated market production and sales reached 50 million, more than 5 million by 2020. Sun Shu said the breakthrough point, or public buses, taxis, government vehicles and environmentally friendly car.
Moreover, the breakthrough also rely on the enterprises realize mass production to achieve the recognition of the end consumer. Taxi of new energy, new energy electric power engineering vehicles, new energy, postal logistics vehicles, and other areas of actively trying to scale production function. Zotye new energy vehicle market Zhang Mans Mans told this reporter that outlines two cases according to the reporter from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (Bloomberg New Energy Finance) an analysis report on China's new energy vehicle development, optimistic case, in 2015, buses, taxis and government vehicles can add up to about 350,000; 2020, which reached about 1 million. pessimistic case, only about 15 million in 2015, the number of vehicles; 2020, the number of about 400,000 in 2015, with strong impetus from the government subsidies in place to complete the 500,000 tasks or possible. Sun Shu said.
From the current situation, the new energy buses in the high subsidies, promotion of local car companies and battery manufacturers as well as the technical feasibility (passenger cars not as demanding on the battery requirements) and other factors under the new energy bus be regarded as new leader in energy vehicles. "There are two advantages to the bus, a directional traveling fixed routes; bus itself, there are a large number of government subsidies." Automobile Research Institute of Tsinghua University Automotive Safety and Energy National Laboratory deputy director Quanshi. Breaking point or appear in the new energy on board the bus, but it still faces a number of constraints. Shenzhen Bus Group Deputy General Manager Gui Tianjiao these constraints is first reflected Mileage, the charging time consuming charging facilities imperfect. In addition, from the economic benefits, the high cost of the battery.
Battery price, more and more bad economic benefits. The bus used battery is very large. Sun Shu Huang Zheng, deputy general manager of Shanghai Sunwin Bus Corporation further said that power the battery life is short, and need to be scrapped three years. Still want to buy a set before the service life of the bus at the end of life, but in the general price of 150 kilowatts about 60-70 million. between the advance and retreat of the low-speed electric vehicles by low-speed electric vehicles leveraging private market of new energy vehicles? Throughout China's new energy automotive passenger car market, purchased by the private consumption of a very small number, however, one has not been defined as new energy vehicles, low-speed electric cars but in the absence of government support, and not to create the tangled business model under a sales success. mainly distributed in Shandong and fourth-tier cities, sales have reached 100,000. cheap convenient charging many small cities are the object of their consumption Liu Gang, deputy director of the Institute of Economics, Nankai University, said, "This is the result of market selection, not the government chooses the result. "But whether it can really rely on low-speed electric vehicles leveraging private passenger car market of new energy? According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysis, low-speed electric car for the wider real electric car market and will not have a huge impact, because of the low-speed consumer electric cars and electric cars crowd is inconsistent. potential buyers of pure electric car does not turn to buy a low-speed electric vehicles. course, a thing, there will be two-sided. "low-speed electric vehicle technology is more low-end, but about battery management issues, as well as battery and body combined with the study of the problem of the normal electric vehicles for certain benefits. Sun Shu said three business models no high and low around the business model operating profit allocation mechanism has not yet formed.
As Sun Shu, to accelerate and promote the development of the electric vehicle industry, fundamentally based on technological breakthroughs. Technological breakthrough, however, cold day. "In the short term, in the case of technology can not achieve a breakthrough business model innovation to solve the problems encountered in the development of electric vehicles is particularly important." Said Xie Zaicong. In fact, the process of the development of new energy automotive industry to create a different business model. According to statistics, the domestic electric vehicle commercial operation initially formed Shenzhen Putian mode, Hangzhou leasing for power mode and Hefei directed the purchase of three modes. Nevertheless, the local government or the lack of scientific business model to promote planning operators around the business model of benefit distribution mechanism has not yet formed. It is understood that, compared with conventional cars, electric vehicle operations involving more stakeholders, including the supply, operations, facilities, vehicles, battery enterprises fail to reach an agreement, but the parties promotion and operation mode, the vehicle enterprises and power differences in the charge for power mode. "What kind of business model, go to demonstrate to the city as a unit, respectively, to promote the business model, the market will naturally give the answer, who is good and who is bad." Xiezai Cong said, on the basis of prior art pilot business model to further promote the pilot work, in order to verify the feasibility of the different business models. (Source: Internet)
No comments:
Post a Comment